← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 62% | 65% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.23 | fair |
| Dijon win | 15% | 14% | 6.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · Dijon |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 36' | 🟨 | Arnaud Souquet · OGC Nice |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 41' | 🟨 | Vincent Ruefli · Dijon |
| 50' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 84' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Dijon |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cédric Varrault · Dijon |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cédric Varrault · Dijon |
| 88' | 🟥 | Cédric Varrault · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 231.00 | 1631.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1740.73 | 1572.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.60 | -18.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.90 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 40.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |