← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 50% | 46% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 22% | 27% | 4.54 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ | Bafétimbi Gomis · Olympique de Marseille |
| 61' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 78.00 | 413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1676.19 | 1662.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.58 | 20.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.85 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.65 | 26.04 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |