← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 48% | 53% | 2.02 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.39 | fair |
| Metz win | 23% | 20% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Yann Karamoh · Caen |
| 48' | 🟨 | Georges Mandjeck · Metz |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jonathan Rivierez · Metz |
| 57' | 🟥 | Milan Biševac · Metz |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Yann Karamoh · Caen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Guido Milan · Metz |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pape Sane · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2727.00 | 383.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1565.53 | 1539.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.98 | -11.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.10 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |