← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 46% | 52% | 2.12 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Nancy win | 22% | 17% | 4.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Diallo Guidileye · Nancy |
| 33' | ⚽ | Youssef Aït Bennasser · Nancy |
| 53' | 🟨 | Joeffrey Cuffaut · Nancy |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ola Toivonen · Toulouse FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Vincent Muratori · Nancy |
| 85' | ⚽ | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 291.00 | 1173.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1559.16 | 1498.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.50 | 27.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |