← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 56% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Bastia win | 18% | 21% | 5.55 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Gelson Fernandes · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Enzo Crivelli · Bastia |
| 63' | ⚽ | Gaël Danic · Bastia |
| 71' | ⚽ | Giovanni Sio · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 169.00 | 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1641.68 | 1586.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.36 | 10.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |