← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 41% | 45% | 2.37 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.26 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 29% | 26% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 19' | 🟨 | Igor Lewczuk · Bordeaux |
| 20' | ⚽ | Stéphane Sessègnon · Montpellier |
| 38' | 🟥 | Jérémy Ménez · Bordeaux |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mathieu Deplagne · Montpellier |
| 66' | 🟨 | Stéphane Sessègnon · Montpellier |
| 66' | 🟨 | Grégory Sertic · Bordeaux |
| 84' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yacouba Sylla · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 2726.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1564.97 | 1558.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.78 | -18.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |