← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 38% | 40% | 2.57 | value: +4% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 32% | 28% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.28 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟥 | Jessy Moulin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 16' | 🟨 | Romain Philippoteaux · FC Lorient |
| 39' | ⚽ | Romain Philippoteaux · FC Lorient |
| 47' | 🟨 | Cheikh M'Bengue · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 67' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · FC Lorient |
| 73' | 🟨 | Vincent Le Goff · FC Lorient |
| 76' | 🟨 | Michael Ciani · FC Lorient |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jimmy Cabot · FC Lorient |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vincent Pajot · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 46.00 | 2573.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1447.61 | 1643.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.92 | 7.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.86 |
| league points | 12.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |