← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 40% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Nantes win | 27% | 24% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Guillaume Gillet · Nantes |
| 24' | 🟨 | Oswaldo Vizcarrondo · Nantes |
| 29' | 🟨 | Cheikh N'Doye · Angers SCO |
| 48' | ⚽ | Amine Harit · Nantes |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jules Iloki · Nantes |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mariusz Stępiński · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 1995.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1513.24 | 1452.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.00 | -23.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| state index | -0.62 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |