← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 64% | 65% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.47 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 15% | 16% | 6.71 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Mathieu Valbuena · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 43' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 74' | 🟥 | Ramy Bensebaini · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergi Darder · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 376.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1744.41 | 1647.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.48 | 5.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 25.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.93 | — |
| state index | 1.25 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |