← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 47% | 49% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 24% | 22% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Ola Toivonen · Toulouse FC |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ola Toivonen · Toulouse FC |
| 27' | ⚽ | Benjamin Moukandjo · FC Lorient |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ola Toivonen · Toulouse FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · Toulouse FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Majeed Waris · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 284.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1553.46 | 1453.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.52 | 3.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |