← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 50% | 44% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.41 | value: +14% |
| Montpellier win | 21% | 22% | 4.61 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 38' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Lille OSC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vincent Enyeama · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 405.00 | 2719.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1579.41 | 1573.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.76 | 31.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |