← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 37% | 45% | 2.63 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.03 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 30% | 24% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 156.00 | 2560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1552.83 | 1641.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.93 | -15.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.84 |
| league points | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |