← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 52% | 46% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.42 | value: +8% |
| Toulouse FC win | 19% | 22% | 5.10 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 26' | ⚽ | Younès Belhanda · OGC Nice |
| 53' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jean Michaël Seri · OGC Nice |
| 71' | 🟨 | Yann Bodiger · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 217.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1646.13 | 1564.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.04 | -28.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 76.60 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |