← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 55% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
| Nancy win | 18% | 18% | 5.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 64.00 | 1160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1579.00 | 1495.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.21 | 31.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.85 |
| league points | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.43 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |