← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 65% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.64 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 13% | 13% | 7.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Christopher Nkunku · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 58' | 🟨 | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Ryad Boudebouz · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 2712.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1544.59 | 1861.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.06 | 21.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.80 |
| league points | 16.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 2.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.00 |
| state index | 0.09 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |