← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 40% | 45% | 2.44 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.11 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 28% | 24% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Laborde · Bordeaux |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Amadou · Lille OSC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Grégory Sertic · Bordeaux |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adama Soumaoro · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julian Palmieri · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 155.00 | 398.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1583.92 | 1567.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.26 | -14.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| league points | 24.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |