← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastien Moreira, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 45% | 47% | 2.19 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.33 | fair |
| Dijon win | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 26' | ⚽ | Pierre Lees Melou · Dijon |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 29' | 🟨 | Arnold Bouka Moutou · Dijon |
| 31' | 🟨 | Arnold Bouka Moutou · Dijon |
| 31' | 🟥 | Arnold Bouka Moutou · Dijon |
| 37' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 43' | ⚽ | Yann Karamoh · Caen |
| 48' | 🟨 | Alaeddine Yahia · Caen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Vincent Ruefli · Dijon |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 59' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jonathan Delaplace · Caen |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Alaeddine Yahia · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2711.00 | 1615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1566.87 | 1580.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.22 | -8.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |