← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 42% | 47% | 2.34 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 28% | 25% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Montpellier |
| 61' | 🟨 | William Rémy · Montpellier |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Toulouse FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Alban Lafont · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 274.00 | 2709.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1555.99 | 1552.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.27 | 1.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| league points | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |