← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 79% | 83% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.73 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 7% | 5% | 14.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 182.00 | 1979.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1858.30 | 1534.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.86 | -5.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 32.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.33 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.06 | — |
| state index | 1.65 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |