← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 46% | 50% | 2.13 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Metz win | 24% | 22% | 4.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Benoît Assou-Ekotto · Metz |
| 31' | 🟨 | Loïc Puyo · Nancy |
| 33' | 🟨 | Benoît Pedretti · Nancy |
| 38' | ⚽ | Benoît Pedretti · Nancy |
| 47' | 🟨 | Issiar Dia · Nancy |
| 53' | 🟨 | Vincent Marchetti · Nancy |
| 74' | 🟨 | Milan Biševac · Metz |
| 78' | ⚽ | Joeffrey Cuffaut · Nancy |
| 80' | ⚽ | Issiar Dia · Nancy |
| 83' | 🟨 | Benoît Assou-Ekotto · Metz |
| 83' | 🟥 | Benoît Assou-Ekotto · Metz |
| 87' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youssef Aït Bennasser · Nancy |
| 90' | ⚽ | Youssef Aït Bennasser · Nancy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| coach days | 1156.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1483.28 | 1407.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.36 | 9.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |