← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 37% | 34% | 2.67 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.09 | fair |
| Bastia win | 32% | 35% | 3.11 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Isaac Thelin · Bordeaux |
| 34' | 🟨 | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gaël Danic · Bastia |
| 49' | ⚽ | Thievy Bifouma · Bastia |
| 78' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Bordeaux |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jean-Louis Leca · Bastia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jérémy Ménez · Bordeaux |
| 82' | 🟥 | Florian Marange · Bastia |
| 83' | 🟨 | Adam Ounas · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Armand Cesari |
| coach days | 334.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1581.03 | 1663.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.90 | 11.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |