← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Tue, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Lannoy, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 36% | 49% | 2.74 | value: +34% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 35% | 23% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Arnold Mvuemba · FC Lorient |
| 28' | ⚽ | Michael Ciani · FC Lorient |
| 32' | ⚽ | Giovanni Sio · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 46' | ⚽ | Majeed Waris · FC Lorient |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ludovic Baal · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 28.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1437.52 | 1564.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.52 | 16.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 8.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |