← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Tue, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Said Ennjimi, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 56% | 47% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
| Caen win | 16% | 22% | 5.98 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Éder · Lille OSC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Naïm Sliti · Lille OSC |
| 31' | ⚽ | Julien Féret · Caen |
| 64' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Rony Lopes · Lille OSC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Syam Ben Youssef · Caen |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 394.00 | 2708.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 1.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1557.11 | 1499.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.47 | -20.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| league points | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |