← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lionel Jaffredo, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 59% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.85 | fair |
| Bastia win | 15% | 20% | 6.46 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 29' | 🟨 | Thievy Bifouma · Bastia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 60' | ⚽ | Enzo Crivelli · Bastia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lenny Nangis · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 210.00 | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1715.13 | 1575.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.16 | -24.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 32.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.04 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |