← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 36% | 43% | 2.73 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 34% | 32% | 2.87 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 30% | 25% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 18' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Angers SCO |
| 24' | 🟨 | Vincent Manceau · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟨 | Léo Lacroix · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 47' | 🟨 | Kévin Malcuit · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 59' | ⚽ | Florentin Pogba · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 68' | 🟨 | Pablo Martínez · Angers SCO |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 77' | ⚽ | Oussama Tannane · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟥 | Kévin Malcuit · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 1976.00 | 2553.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1543.42 | 1635.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.90 | -12.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |