← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 39% | 41% | 2.53 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 29% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Mounir Obbadi · Lille OSC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Yassine Benzia · Lille OSC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Oswaldo Vizcarrondo · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 148.00 | 391.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1474.56 | 1557.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.39 | -26.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |