← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 52% | 46% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.66 | value: +4% |
| Nancy win | 22% | 25% | 4.52 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Modou Diagne · Nancy |
| 70' | 🟨 | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 80' | 🟨 | Stéphane Sessègnon · Montpellier |
| 82' | 🟥 | Stéphane Sessègnon · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Issiar Dia · Nancy |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alou Diarra · Nancy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 2705.00 | 1152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1556.54 | 1479.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.15 | 17.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.85 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |