← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 41% | 41% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Baissama Sankoh · Guingamp |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jonathan Martins Pereira · Guingamp |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Nill De Pauw · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2705.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1576.81 | 1646.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.96 | 37.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |