← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 60% | 59% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.07 | fair |
| Dijon win | 16% | 20% | 6.00 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 48' | ⚽ | Diego Rolán · Bordeaux |
| 62' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 64' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Dijon |
| 69' | 🟨 | Arnold Bouka Moutou · Dijon |
| 88' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 148.00 | 1609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1657.62 | 1581.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |