← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fredy Fautrel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 40% | 40% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.28 | value: +5% |
| Toulouse FC win | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 147.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1634.96 | 1639.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.34 | -6.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |