← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 43% | 58% | 2.27 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.17 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 26% | 18% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Alexander Søderlund · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 48' | 🟨 | Léo Lacroix · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 63' | ⚽ | Valentin Eysseric · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arnaud Nordin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟨 | Younès Belhanda · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 2546.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1651.03 | 1642.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.86 | -17.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 74.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 2.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 1.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |