← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Lannoy, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 53% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| Caen win | 21% | 28% | 4.65 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Zinédine Machach · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bafétimbi Gomis · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolas Seube · Caen |
| 81' | ⚽ | Rolando · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 1 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 2699.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1653.61 | 1583.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.51 | -10.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| league points | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |