← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 41% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.08 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 27% | 24% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Giovanni Sio · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Yoann Andreu · Angers SCO |
| 56' | 🟨 | Vincent Manceau · Angers SCO |
| 58' | 🟥 | Romain Thomas · Angers SCO |
| 69' | 🟨 | Yoann Gourcuff · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 82' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟥 | Cheikh N'Doye · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 141.00 | 1968.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1558.40 | 1541.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.02 | 13.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |