← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 47% | 48% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
| Dijon win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Anthony Robic · Nancy |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ádám Lang · Dijon |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 61' | 🟨 | Vincent Ruefli · Dijon |
| 77' | ⚽ | Tobias Badila · Nancy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| coach days | 1145.00 | 1602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1471.13 | 1475.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.10 | 18.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |