← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 38% | 37% | 2.61 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 32% | 36% | 3.08 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 383.00 | 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1567.08 | 1651.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.80 | -8.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| league points | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.04 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |