← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 39% | 38% | 2.51 | fair |
| Caen win | 32% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.39 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jean-Victor Makengo · Caen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Rémy Vercoutre · Caen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2685.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1570.52 | 1727.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.62 | 10.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 72.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 2.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 2.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.74 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |