← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 37% | 44% | 2.67 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.06 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 31% | 24% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Martin Braithwaite · Toulouse FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Oswaldo Vizcarrondo · Nantes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Guillaume Gillet · Nantes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Koffi Djidji · Nantes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pavle Ninkov · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 127.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1475.52 | 1581.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.64 | 22.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |