← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 68% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.81 | fair |
| Bastia win | 12% | 12% | 8.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Gaël Danic · Bastia |
| 3' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sadio Diallo · Bastia |
| 47' | 🟥 | Jean-Louis Leca · Bastia |
| 67' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 74' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 74' | 🟥 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Pierre Bengtsson · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enzo Crivelli · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| coach days | 340.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.01 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1722.31 | 1580.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.84 | -20.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 23.97 | — |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |