← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Lannoy, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 37% | 41% | 2.65 | value: +10% |
| Guingamp win | 32% | 26% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Cédric Varrault · Dijon |
| 26' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
| 32' | ⚽ | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 39' | 🟨 | Étienne Didot · Guingamp |
| 44' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 79' | ⚽ | Alexandre Mendy · Guingamp |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nill De Pauw · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1588.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1590.44 | 1648.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.29 | 21.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |