← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Said Ennjimi, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 60% | 63% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.92 | fair |
| Metz win | 15% | 14% | 6.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 13' | 🟨 | Jonathan Rivierez · Metz |
| 56' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Simon Falette · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| coach days | 121.00 | 334.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1558.76 | 1390.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.81 | -16.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.56 | 61.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.56 | 3.44 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.43 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |