← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 47% | 41% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.28 | fair |
| Caen win | 23% | 29% | 4.25 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Christophe Mandanne · Nancy |
| 12' | ⚽ | Alou Diarra · Nancy |
| 65' | 🟨 | Benoît Pedretti · Nancy |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alou Diarra · Nancy |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alaeddine Yahia · Caen |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Serge N'Guessan · Nancy |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Delaplace · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| coach days | 1124.00 | 2677.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1463.58 | 1507.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.52 | -15.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |