← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 62% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.27 | value: +6% |
| Lille OSC win | 15% | 16% | 6.74 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Layvin Kurzawa · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rio Mavuba · Lille OSC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Renato Civelli · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 362.00 | 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 4.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1581.48 | 1840.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.93 | -22.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 2.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.66 |
| state index | 0.19 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 1.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |