← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 75% | 80% | 1.30 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.03 | fair |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 8% | 6% | 11.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 70' | 🟨 | Yohann Pelé · Olympique de Marseille |
| 88' | 🟨 | Lassana Diarra · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 0 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 4 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 144.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | — |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.15 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1847.44 | 1587.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.78 | 0.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.88 | 51.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.40 | — |
| state index | 1.50 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.76 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |