← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 41% | 51% | 2.38 | value: +21% |
| Metz win | 29% | 24% | 3.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 25' | ⚽ | Georges Mandjeck · Metz |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 54' | 🟨 | Georges Mandjeck · Metz |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ismaïla Sarr · Metz |
| 69' | ⚽ | Habib Diallo · Metz |
| 73' | 🟨 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 76' | 🟨 | Yann Jouffre · Metz |
| 84' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wylan Cyprien · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 1 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 327.00 | 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1566.93 | 1735.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.19 | 7.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.88 | 71.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.25 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 24.68 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |