← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 36% | 39% | 2.69 | value: +5% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 33% | 27% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.18 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Henri Saivet · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 49' | ⚽ | Henri Saivet · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 58' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 62' | 🟨 | Vincent Bessat · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2671.00 | 2518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1595.91 | 1706.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.29 | -2.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.89 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |