← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 43% | 39% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.36 | value: +9% |
| FC Lorient win | 28% | 29% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · FC Lorient |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cafú · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dylan Bahamboula · Dijon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jordan Lotiès · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1574.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1581.99 | 1531.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.27 | 5.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.67 | 50.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.44 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |