← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 67% | 67% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.90 | fair |
| Metz win | 13% | 14% | 7.76 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Bafétimbi Gomis · Olympique de Marseille |
| 42' | 🟨 | Georges Mandjeck · Metz |
| 68' | 🟨 | Chris Philipps · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lassana Diarra · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 15.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1583.98 | 1401.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.07 | 22.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.88 | 62.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.88 | 3.57 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |