← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Said Ennjimi, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 47% | 44% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
| Caen win | 24% | 29% | 4.01 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Montpellier |
| 8' | ⚽ | Alaeddine Yahia · Caen |
| 30' | 🟨 | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 65' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 71' | 🟥 | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 77' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 2663.00 | 2663.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1543.39 | 1527.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.15 | -14.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.88 | 60.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.13 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |