← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 35% | 28% | 2.84 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 34% | 39% | 2.85 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.16 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 77' | 🟨 | Yoann Andreu · Angers SCO |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.62 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1920.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1527.63 | 1583.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.01 | -1.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 47.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.17 | 4.14 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |