← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Bastia win | 20% | 22% | 4.79 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Nantes |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lassana Coulibaly · Bastia |
| 38' | 🟨 | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 55' | 🟨 | Florian Marange · Bastia |
| 61' | 🟨 | Oswaldo Vizcarrondo · Nantes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Amine Harit · Nantes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Mehdi Mostefa · Bastia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 92.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1470.52 | 1545.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.55 | -5.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.83 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.71 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |